As global tensions periodically dominate the news cycle, questions about national vulnerability tend to follow. It’s worth starting from a grounded place: there is no confirmed global war underway, and no credible public evidence pointing to an imminent large-scale conflict involving the United States. That said, defense analysts and academic researchers do run scenario-based models to understand how geography and infrastructure might matter in extreme situations. These exercises aren’t forecasts—they’re tools meant to test preparedness and identify potential weaknesses.

One of the most commonly examined factors in those models is the distribution of strategic military assets, particularly intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. These installations are part of the U.S. nuclear deterrent and are intentionally spread across several central states. Because of their strategic importance, simulations often treat them as higher-priority targets in a hypothetical nuclear exchange. As a result, states in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest are frequently highlighted in modeling discussions—not because of current threats, but because of long-established infrastructure.